[Submission]: Bottom Temperature - Ocean Model

[BBeltz1]

Primary Contact

[email protected]

Secondary Contact

No response

Data Name (This will be the displayed title in Catalog)

Bottom Temperature - Ocean Model

Indicator Name (as exists in ecodata)

New Indicator

Family (Which group is this indicator associated with?)

• Oceanographic
• Habitat
• Lower trophic levels
• Megafauna
• Social
• Economic

Data Description

The data presented here are indicators of bottom temperature derived from the MOM6 ocean model. This includes annual bottom temperature and seasonal bottom temperature anomalies on the Northeast Continental Shelf, and comparisons to observation-based bottom temperature indicators.

Introduction to Indicator (Please explain your indicator)

This indicator shows bottom temperature from a regional ocean model for the Northwest Atlantic based on the Modular Ocean Model Version 6. The model is at roughly 1/12 a degree horizontal resolution with data from 1993-2019 from a hindcast simulation which has no data assimilation. In addition to the hindcast, the model will be run as a seasonal to annual forecast, a decadal forecast, and a centennial projection. Investigating the ability of this model to reproduce key indicators can help us to develop confidence in the model, as well as learn where improvements can be made.

Key Results and Visualization

Here we show the mean annual temperature, as well as seasonal temperature anomalies in the Mid Atlantic Bight (MAB), Georges Bank (GB) and Gulf of Maine (GOM) EPUs. Data from 1959 through 1992 are from the biased corrected ROMS dataset (Pontavice et al., 2022). Data from 1993 through 2019 are from MOM6 (Ross et al., 2023), and 1993 through 2023 are from GLORYS12 reanalysis (Lellouche et al., 2021). For the anomaly plots the climatology period is 1990 through 2020.

The MOM6 model hindcast does a good job at reproducing seasonal bottom temperature anomalies calculated from GLORYS12 reanalysis data. Large differences between the MOM6 based time series and the GLORYS12 based time series during the 1959 through 1992 (for example during summer in Georges Bank) are due to the differences in the climatologies between the two timeseries. Because the 1959 through 1992 ROMS was biased corrected using the GLORYS12 dataset, calculating seasonal climatologies using primarily MOM6 data introduces a new, different bias. The differing ability of the model to accurately reproduce bottom temperature during different seasons also likely contributes to the discrepancies between the two time series in the annual bottom temperature plots.

Lellouche J-M, Greiner E, Bourdalle-Badie R, Garric G, Melet A, Drevillon M, Bricaud C, Hamon M, Galloud O Le, Regnier C, Candel T, Testut C-E, Gasparin F, Ruggerio G, Benkiran M, Drillet Y, Traon P-Y Le. The Copernicus Global 1/12° Oceanic and Sea Ice GLORYS12 Reanalysis. Frontiers in Earth Science. 2021;9. 10.3389/feart.2021.698876

Pontavice H du, Miller TJ, Stock BC, Chen Z, Saba VS. Ocean model-based covariates improve a marine fish stock assessment when observations are limited. Hidalgo M, editor. ICES Journal of Marine Science. 2022;79: 1259–1273. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsac050

Ross AC, Stock CA, Adcroft A, Curchitser E, Harrison MJ, Hallberg R, Hedstrom K, Zadeh N, Alexander M, Chen W, Drenkard EJ, Pontavice H du, Dussin R, Gomez F, John JG, Kang D, Lavoie D, Resplandy L, Roobaert A, Saba V, Shin S-I, Siedlecki S, Simkins J. A high-resolution physical–biogeochemical model for marine resource applications in the northwest Atlantic (MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 v1.0) Geoscientific Model Development. 2023;16: 6943–6985. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023

Implications

Data from ocean models is an important tool that we can use to understand changes to the marine environment. The MOM6 regional model for the Northwest Atlantic hindcast can provide consistent data in space and time where gaps exist in observations. Model data can also be used to forecast future conditions. The ability of MOM6 to reproduce seasonal temperature anomalies in these EPUs increases confidence in the model.

Spatial Scale

The model data is on a grid of roughly 1/12 a degree

Temporal Scale

The model data is from January 1993 through December 2019

Synthesis Theme

• Multiple System Drivers
• Regime Shifts
• Ecosystem Reorganization

Define Variables

1. Source: MOM6 - Modular Ocean Model Version 6; ROMS - debiased Regional Ocean Model; GLORYS - Global Ocean Reanalysis; PSY - Global Ocean Physics Analysis and Forecast. 2) EPU: MAB - Mid Atlantic Bight; GB - Georges Bank; GOM - Gulf of Maine. 3) Var: Annual_Bottom Temp - Annual Bottom Temperature averaged within an EPU boundary in degrees C; Fall bottom temp anomaly roms_mom6 - Bottom temperature anomaly in the fall (October, November, December) averaged within an EPU boundary using ROMS (1959-1992) and MOM6 (1993-2019) data. Units are degrees C; Fall_Bottom Temp Anomaly - Bottom temperature anomaly in the fall (October, November, December) averaged within an EPU boundary using ROMS (1959-1992) and GLORYS/PSY (1993-2023) data. Units are degrees C; Winter bottom temp anomaly roms_mom6 - Bottom temperature anomaly in the winter (January, February, March) averaged within an EPU boundary using ROMS (1959-1992) and MOM6 (1993-2019) data. Units are degrees C; Winter_Bottom Temp Anomaly - Bottom temperature anomaly in the winter (January, February, March) averaged within an EPU boundary using ROMS (1959-1992) and GLORYS/PSY (1993-2023) data. Units are degrees C; Spring bottom temp anomaly roms_mom6 - Bottom temperature anomaly in the spring (April, May, June) averaged within an EPU boundary using ROMS (1959-1992) and MOM6 (1993-2019) data. Units are degrees C; Spring_Bottom Temp Anomaly - Bottom temperature anomaly in the spring (April, May, June) averaged within an EPU boundary using ROMS (1959-1992) and GLORYS/PSY (1993-2023) data. Units are degrees C; Summer bottom temp anomaly roms_mom6 - Bottom temperature anomaly in the summer (July, August, September) averaged within an EPU boundary using ROMS (1959-1992) and MOM6 (1993-2019) data. Units are degrees C; Summer_Bottom Temp Anomaly - Bottom temperature anomaly in the summer (July, August, September) averaged within an EPU boundary using ROMS (1959-1992) and GLORYS/PSY (1993-2023) data. Units are degrees C

Indicator Category

• Published Methods
• Extensive analysis, not yet published
• Syntheses of published information
• Database pull
• Database pull with analysis
• Other

If other, please specify indicator category

No response

Data Contributors

Laura Gruenburg, Andrew Ross

Point(s) of Contact

Laura Gruenburg ([email protected])

Affiliation

NEFSC

Public Availability

Source data are publicly available.

Accessibility and Constraints

No response